Luengnaruemitchai prosperity

The economic slowdown in Thailand longer than many had expected, this may be a warning sign that we are entering an era of economic or poor. Many people may not know yet But now, with people calling Canada a "sick man of Asia" (a New Sick MAN of Asia)replaced the Philippines already.

Not look too good. We were having some problems.

I look back at all. I do not want to go back very far. Donations to Thailand during the heyday before the crisis year 2540, the country had enough now booming real GDP growth of our Customer Demand continues to grow 8-13% per year over ten years and has been dubbed the Miracle of Asia. (the miracle of Asia) , we told ourselves that we were going to be the fifth tiger. A newly industrialized countries Playing with the big economic, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong's per capita income, we do it now is more than three times that of China.

Booming era of massive investment. Both from public investment to build a pipe and gas drilling industry in the East. Many foreign investment to build production bases in Thailand.Labor is relatively cheap and relatively good infrastructure investment makes Thailand took quite a lot.

Before the bubble to come visit. And invested a lot into the property sector. Golf happen like mushrooms. The construction is seen everywhere.

Current account deficit, making Thailand a lot more during the worst of our current account deficit of more than 8% of GDP, a lot of foreign currency loans. The big risk in the financial sector.

Then the bubble burst, the pontoon. We have to float the baht And the money lost more than half. Bank and Business locomotives fall Of assets lost in the blink of an eye. Debt and massive increase in knowledge.

We entered into a severe recession in the near term. Before the baht, greatly weakening the competitiveness of the country, the better the unusual. Change country by focusing on investment and consumption. A country that is driven by exports.

Over the next ten years later Export became the cornerstone of the economy, Thailand.The importance of exports, an increase of about 30% of GDP is 65-70% in a few years' worth of exports to grow at 10-15% a year is normal. Thailand exports of agricultural and industrial commodities shift from labor-intensive industries such as textiles became. The Electronics Electronics, computers and cars

While investment in the country. Both public and private investment. Is relatively low compared to before the crisis. (Probably because it is not finished licking wounds).

Source: Office of National Economic and Social Committee, the author.

Before we see the global crisis in 2008, the export halt altogether. With the global economy It is relatively fast recovery But since then, We could not face any more normal year. We have a political crisis in 2009-2010 we had a major flood in 2011. The year 2012 was a year of recovery was great. Before being driven by populist policies have both a home and the security of rice. The compression of over 500,000 million baht into the economy. The state and the people borrow money in the future so much.

Thailand's economy is likely to peak in late 2012-early 2013, the car manufacturer to deliver in the first car. Thailand to grow the economy and have never felt before. Then the economy will hit a wall out any resistance. Like a car out of fuel Economic slow startHousehold debt at higher speeds. Become the largest economy over the inevitable.

And political crisis began his visit in late 2013, before the takeover in mid-2014.

The government is trying to start the engine of the new economy. However, it seems that it will not stick. Due to the low prices of agricultural products, farm income is an important part of the economy. The country's economy lost a little sluggish domestic consumption is continuous. Condo country to reach it. Last year, before starting to sell out.

Economic uncertainty, it is not private investment. While the state still has not fully a push anything.

Exports is unlikely to be improved. Thailand does not export growth continued for over three years. Especially since the Great Flood, the. There are few things which is a factor of the global economy. The uneven recovery Demand is recovering well. And demand for foreign goods is reduced. Both from the economic structure of the country and need to rely on its products, services and more.

Second is the rate of economic stagnation. The income from the export of agricultural products fell.

It is important that the Competitiveness of Thailand appears to be worse with higher wages. And competition from neighboring countries with much lower wages.

We say it is not a low-wage country anymore. We hope to compete with traditional products have not already.

But that is worrisome We were not able to compete in the market with high added value with the technology better. Partly because we are "Country fabrication" truly is, we have to rely on foreign countries to "choose" our manufacturing base. Where we do not have the technology and quality of skilled workers seriously.

Hard disk is an interesting example.

Thailand is the world's major manufacturing base disk. We produce hard drive than a quarter of world production should recall that the flood in Thailand stopped production DIY Apple computer sales did not go because no one ever Hard Disk.

But technological change The change from the tablet computer began to drive away from a solid state drive technology. Exports began to fall hard. But we can not just pull out this new technology has been produced in Thailand.

Fortunately, we now have a new car as a hero. If not, it still worse.

After the crisis of 2008, the average economic growth of just 3% Thailand little (and as little as 3% of the total losses of rice for about 4-5% of GDP to me), compared with 8% before. The crisis of 1997 and about 5% before the crisis of 2008.

Source: Office of National Economic and Social Committee, the author.

While other countries getting better.The Philippines is expected to grow by 6% over the Indonesian economy remains weak "only" 5.3%, and Vietnam, it's good night. Toronto still has a nearly 6% of that we've almost race.(Or race) with Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, now we are left to compete with the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam, and Bloomberg questioning whether we can for the sick of Asia represent the Philippines or if we do not adapt to the capabilities. Played Soon we will be passing away soon.

And I want to emphasize again that. Population issues Is a major problem in Thailand.Thailand is moving towards to the rich. Thailand and the number of people of working age will start to decline this year. Due to the number of children who enter with fewer people of working age who are to retire. We are a few countries in Asia that are facing this problem.(Other countries are Japan, Korea, China and Singapore are mostly rich finished).

The aging population In addition to the economic burden of raising the elderly. That must be collected from the workers are less so. So we're going to create a shortage of labor resources to economic growth. While other countries ASEAN's no problem I would not be surprised The new foreign investment. May not come to Thailand as before.

The problem is therefore urgent that we think conduce to it. We have two choices: The easy is it to behave the same. Burmese imports Cambodian workers Into passive Wages are rising steadily. Then wait for the country's growth and move back out.

Or we will choose the hard way is to develop education. Promote technological development Infrastructure investment to optimize the efficiency of the economy. Promote the use of machinery Both the industrial and agricultural sectors to reduce labor.

The state would not act alone. But also in the private sector should be aware of the great problems we are facing. And cooperate seriously

I hope it That we will be able to escape from the trap of the medium. Neck and label the new sick man of Asia to you.